Geopolitical Prospects in Syria After the Fall of Bashar al-Assad

Abstract

The collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in December 2024 marked a turning point in Syria’s geopolitical landscape. The fall of the Baathist government generated a power vacuum that led to a strategic reconfiguration of the country, with national and international actors vying for influence. This article analyzes the military and political dynamics following Assad’s departure, with an emphasis on territorial fragmentation, the activity of insurgent groups such as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the Tiger Forces, as well as the role of powers such as Russia, the United States (US), Iran and Turkey. In addition, it examines the political, military and economic challenges of the transitional government, the impact of Assad’s exile in Moscow and the possibility of Syria being divided into zones of control under different spheres of influence. From this context, possible future scenarios and their implications for regional and global stability are assessed.