Generative Artificial Intelligence: A Prospective Analysis of its Implications for Security and Defense

Abstract

Humanity is currently experiencing the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), which represents a profound break with the past. While previous revolutions were manifested in intellectual, economic, technological and, in some cases, political and social fields, this new stage is distinguished by the accelerated, exponential and convergent deployment of disruptive technologies. The first 25 years of the 21st century have seen what Fareed Zakaria calls “the age of revolutions,” characterized by profound transformations in politics, culture, identity and geopolitics, driven by a digital environment that has duplicated the advances of the past 250 years. It is essential to understand the physical and psychological effects of these changes, which generate both positive and negative consequences for society. Among the most relevant innovations are generative artificial intelligence (GAI) and quantum computing, which constitute, on the one hand, an existential challenge and, on the other, an opportunity for progress in various fields of knowledge. In particular, AGI stands as a key element in the military and strategic domain, transforming decision making and conflict management, while introducing unprecedented risks in terms of cybersecurity, disinformation and the arms race. The lack of balance between technological progress and human oversight could seriously affect global stability. Finally, this article analyzes AGI from a prospective perspective, assessing the threats, challenges and opportunities it poses in the field of security and defense, both in the present and in the near future.